China's building military

[americanpride]

Russia has no interest in the affairs of Asia beyond the Korean Peninsula, lacking the political clout and military projection capabilities to be much of an influence beyond its own borders.

Russia's policy interests are in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Caucasus (however that's spelled). Russia would sit out a US-Sino conflict and hope to pick up the economic scraps in Korea, Europe and Central Asia.

I wouldn't expect the Middle East to go up in flames - it already is. Israel can defend herself, having consistently defeated numerous Arab states over the last several decades. Israel has unequal economic, political, and military advantages over her adversaries.

I'd expect US investment in the Central Asian and South Asian states to increase. Tajikistan, Pakistan, India, and so on. These states are already critical to the War on Terrorism, and could be easily transitioned into operations against China, given their proximity.

The decisive regions would be Korea and Central Asia, not Taiwan. Taiwan may be the flashpoint, but it would not be strategically decisive for either party. Whoever controls the Korean Peninsula controls East Asia, and whoever controls Central Asia, controls the Middle East. We do not need to repeat the importance of those regions.

A land invasion of China would be impossible, simply because of China's sheer size. The objective would have to be the destruction of China as a coherent political, economic, and military unit rather than its occupation. Because any victory would have to be enduring in order to avoid another war, we would have to see to it that the Chinese government is changed to one that is more friendly. This could only be done with native elements inside China sympathetic to democracy and America.

I'd also expect the usage of special weapons in the Korean theater.

[tits]

With two major conflicts on its borders, I wonder how long Russia could keep neutral. For that matter, how long India and Pakistan could keep from conflict.

The more I look at this from an pessimistic perspective, the more my original statment makes sense. I do not believe that either the US nor PRC want an armed conflict. It just seems like it would quickly spiral totally out of control.

Great analysis of Russia.

[americanpride]

Russia would keep neutral because that's all it can do. It can hardly manage to defeat Chechen rebels without committing mass murder - an invasion of China or East Europe is beyond their scope. It would probably take advantage of conflict by increasing it's arm sales hoping to kick start its dragging economy - but that's about it.

The biggest loser of a US-Sino conflict would be the EU. With Germany and France already distant from the US, they'll sit out. East Europe would continue to see US investment and even US bases as we continue our global realignment. The UK, if not committed to the conflict, would at the very least not be opposed to it. So - the EU disintegrates. France and Germany are left to themselves - East Europe continues to strengthen ties with the US. Italy and Spain - who cares?

A war against China - like all wars - would have to be decisive and swift, and the results enduring. China's strength lies in the Party's control of the industrial and population centers - but the majority of its population live in the poorer, rural areas where the Party's control is less than absolute. I think maybe a concerted campaign to destroy the Party's ability to control either would effectively draw them to the peace table.

[tits]

conflict. It seems that any ME/SWA major war would pull them into that front.

France is one sovereignty that frightens me. They have a history to talking the talk of unification, but doing their own thing. They have a huge simmering Islamic problem that will need to be addressed soon. The secularist government is using the same tools that has squelched Judaism and Christian displays against the Muslims. Some of the insurgents in Algeria have made reference to “France’s antiIslam” status.

I really see them siding with the Arab against Israel and thereby forcing a confrontation with the US. France is a first world military with some awesome weapons and special forces. Their political leadership is little different from ours, selfish arrogant egotistic myopic fools who wish to serve their “Party” over their people.

I also see Russia getting pulled down into the Arab conflict due to the huge Muslim population in the southern provinces. The Chechen conflict is as much a Islam conflict as it is a nationalism one. When the writings from the Chechen Rebels are read, they almost always speak of Allah and religious freedom to practice in their monotheistic government

The pessimist in me just cannot see Russia remaining silent nor that the French listening to their own voice.

I am reminded of the early reports from the Iraqi conflict and the huge oil for food fiasco. France is at the center of many of the weapons systems that support Saddam and was drawing nearly 62% of Iraqi oil. Most of this oil was under the table deals through a pipeline into Turkey and north.

[americanpride]

Well, I certainly don't see Russia entering any conflict not on its borders. For centuries, it's policy objectives have been directed at East Europe and the Caucauses (I should really learn how to spell that). Russia desires the energy resources of the Black Sea region, though the West led by the US has usurped them there. Russia does not have a relation with Islamists, after the fiasco of the Afghan invasion. They do have ties with secular Arabs and, at least historically, had ties with Israel. Not sure to what extent that exists anymore though. Russia would have no interest - or ability - to enter a US-Sino conflict. They may very well direct their energies towards the Middle East and Central Asia, but even then, the US influence in terms of political clout, military deployment, and economic investment, is HUGE. Russia will watch and wait.

France is overestimated. Even with a first class military and some economic capacity, it lacks the political capital internationally to be much of an influence. It lacks trust and has a poor reputation. Which is why it has no reliable allies. France is like the Portugal of the 18th and 19th centuries - there, but no one cares.

I have been saying for quite some time that the world is gearing up for a new "imperial" race between the US, China, and a rebuilding Russia.

[tits]

americanpride said:

I have been saying for quite some time that the world is gearing up for a new "imperial" race between the US, China, and a rebuilding Russia.

That makes sense to me!

[americanpride]

Knowing that, our country should be aggressively pursuing our national interests abroad - accusations of imperialism be damned.